Study Estimates Salary Arrears at SSP 1.3–2.1 Trillion
JUBA, 10 October 2026 — A policy study presented during a national liquidity workshop estimates that government salary arrears reached SSP 1.3 trillion to SSP 2.1 trillion by January 2026, equivalent to roughly eight to thirteen months of unpaid wages. These are the authors’ estimates, not a Treasury audit or a verified current balance.
Eye Radio identified the study as Cash Everywhere, Trust Nowhere: The SSP Liquidity Crisis in South Sudan, by Dr. Augustino T. Mayai and Dr. Aweng P. Majok. The Bank of South Sudan confirms it jointly convened the 7 October workshop with the Ebony Center, but its published account does not reproduce or endorse the study’s numerical estimates.
The study, as reported by Eye Radio, argues that a collapse in oil revenue, central-bank financing of government obligations, unpaid salaries and weakening confidence in banks are intertwined. It estimates that paying just two months of public salaries electronically would create demand for physical cash around six times the cash reportedly held in all commercial-bank vaults combined. The full underlying study and its bank cash methodology have not been independently examined by South Sudan Press.
Why a bank credit is not the same as a withdrawal
Analysis: A salary deposited electronically can settle an accounting obligation while leaving workers unable to withdraw all of it if banks lack notes or limit cash access. A credible arrears plan therefore needs both a verified payroll liability and a realistic payment schedule, alongside transparent cash allocation and confidence in non-cash payments. Simply printing more currency without addressing fiscal financing and trust may intensify price and exchange-rate pressures.
Eye Radio also reported study figures for central-bank overdrafts and reserve-money expansion dating largely to 2024. Those should not be presented as current 2026 balances. The estimated arrears date to January, so they cannot establish what the government owes today.
The caretaker government has not published an audited arrears total, detailed settlement schedule or the underlying physical-cash inventory used in the study. South Sudan Press is requesting the paper, its methodology and responses from the Finance Ministry, Bank of South Sudan, commercial banks and workers’ representatives.
Sources: Eye Radio’s report on the study; Eye Radio’s account of the study’s diagnosis; Bank of South Sudan workshop notice.