Why the December 22 Election in South Sudan Won’t Happen

South Sudan is officially preparing for national elections on December 22, 2026. The National Elections Commission (NEC) continues to insist that the election will take place. However, based on the political, legal, security, financial, and logistical realities facing the country, I believe the December 22 election is unlikely to occur as a credible, inclusive, and nationally accepted election.

This is not an argument against elections. South Sudan desperately needs legitimate democratic institutions. The concern is whether the country can realistically build the minimum conditions for a credible election within the remaining weeks.

1. Voter registration remains a fundamental obstacle

On September 2, the NEC reported that it was still training election committees from 10 states and three administrative areas on how to conduct voter registration. The NEC also clarified that registration had not begun and that no voter-registration statistics existed. (NEC statement, 2 September)

That means the country must establish a credible voter register, register millions of eligible citizens, address displaced populations and returnees, produce registration materials, prepare polling stations, train personnel, and establish procedures for complaints and disputes, all within an extremely compressed timeframe.

2. Political consensus remains weak

The African Union has emphasized that credible elections require political consensus, inclusivity, civic space, citizen security, and participation by women, youth, and displaced populations. It also expressed concern over disagreements among signatories to the peace agreement and renewed armed confrontations in Jonglei, Upper Nile, and elsewhere. (AU Peace and Security Council, 26 August)

Although an inter-party dialogue began on September 24, I regard it as inadequate while important parties remain outside it. The AU itself has called for continued engagement with opposition groups outside the dialogue. (AU C5 Plus declaration, 29 September)

3. Political restructuring raises questions

On September 22, President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional government, national legislature, the 10 state governments, and their assemblies, replacing them with a caretaker administration. This occurred only about three months before the scheduled election. Rather than demonstrating institutional readiness, this restructuring shows how unsettled the political system remains.

4. Security remains a major threat

Elections cannot be credible if citizens in conflict-affected areas cannot safely register or vote. The AU has identified security as a critical requirement for the December election and has called for an end to hostilities and military mobilisation. (AU Peace and Security Council)

5. Financing and logistics could become the breaking point

Elections require money for voter registration, transportation, polling materials, personnel, security, civic education, dispute resolution, and international observation. The AU has highlighted unresolved political, technical, operational, financial, legal, and security requirements. (AU C5 Plus declaration)

South Sudan’s transition has repeatedly been extended because political agreements and institutional preparations were not completed on schedule. The danger now is repeating that pattern while pretending that a calendar date alone can create electoral readiness.

My recommendation

South Sudanese leaders should prepare a realistic contingency plan instead of waiting until December to acknowledge any failure to meet the deadline. Government, opposition parties, civil society, women, youth, displaced communities, the AU, IGAD, UN, and other stakeholders should establish measurable benchmarks for voter registration, security, political participation, financing, electoral dispute resolution, and international observation.

If those benchmarks cannot be met, leaders should negotiate a short, clearly defined extension rather than conduct a rushed election that could produce disputed results and renewed conflict.

South Sudan does not simply need an election on December 22. It needs an election whose legitimacy is accepted by the people and whose outcome does not become the trigger for another war.